Can Aaron Judge hit 13 homers in 14 games, chase Barry Bonds’ 2001 record?

Thursday September 22, 2022

Aaron Judge has hit 60 home runs. With 14 games to go, he needs two more homers, which look possible, to go past Roger Maris as the single-season home-run leader in the American League. But is it possible to see him hitting 13 homers in 14 games and go after Barry Bonds‘ MLB record of 73 home runs?

It seems likely that Aaron Judge will set the AL home run record for a single season in the next few days. He needs just one more hit to tie Roger Maris’s record of 61, and one more after that to name the record after himself. But the becoming the home-run king in the Major League is something that he can aspire only.

Fans can make predictions and come up with projections to claim that Aaron Judge may be able to do it. Considering his exploits in the last few weeks, it is not impossible for him to score one home run every game.

But wait. Maybe, just maybe, there is more.

There are 14 games left in the season for the Yankees. Barry Bonds’ record for most home runs in a single season is 73. Judge has hit 60 home runs.

Here, the chances are very small, but, well, you know the rest. Aaron Judge has more than a one-in-a-million chance of making a run every game and catching Bonds.

A Judgian Blast ties The Colossus of Clout. pic.twitter.com/pta1vbR52m
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 21, 2022

This season, Aaron Judge has had 11 games where he hit more than one home run. Two of them came after September 13. Here are some of his longest home run streaks this season:

From April 22-May 3, he hit eight home runs in 10 games. If we extend that to May 17, Judge homered 13 times in 21 games.

From July 14-30, he clubbed 12 home runs in 14 games. Between August 22 and September 7, he made nine home runs in 14 games.

If he can keep going like that, things will start to get very serious. Another 12 in 13 games would bring him to 72 with one game remaining in the season. Wouldn’t that be interesting?

Judge has hit 27 home runs in 54 second-half games, or one every two. If he keeps up his current pace and plays every day, he’ll end up with a score of 67 or 68.

The Yankees have seven home games and seven away games left on their schedule. Aaron Judge has 30 home runs at home and on the road, but fans might be interested to know that the Yankees’ two road series are in ballparks that are good for home runs. They play three games in Toronto, which ranks third in HR this season among the 30 home ballparks, and four games in Texas, which ranks fourth in home run park factor.

At the moment, 60 is pretty cool. It will be great to see 61 and then 62. But fans can’t get rid of the thought that Aaron Judge might try for 73 or 74. The odds are small, but they are not zero.

Do you think it is possible for Aaron Judge to score 74 home runs this season?