Subway Series showdown 2023: Who holds the edge, Yankees or Mets?

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The upcoming series brings a glimmer of hope for both the Yankees and Mets, as it guarantees that at least one team will come out victorious. Despite the challenges of injuries and disappointing performances that have cast a shadow over the seasons of both New York clubs, the Subway Series will proceed as scheduled.

Fans on both sides look eagerly to the resumption of the Yankees vs. Mets rivalry dubbed as the ultimate city down.

The Yankees find themselves in a slump, losing two consecutive series and experiencing a noticeable change in their performance without their star slugger. Similarly, the Mets have been struggling, losing eight out of their last nine games and facing a significant shift in their team dynamic without their top power hitter.

As Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso, sidelined due to injuries, aim for home run records in the distance, they will observe a two-game series commencing on Tuesday at Citi Field. This showdown highlights an abundance of star power on the pitching mound rather than at the batter’s box. The Mets are optimistic that Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will find their rhythm, while the Yankees will respond with the formidable duo of Luis Severino and Gerrit Cole.

The Yankees’ struggling offense has mustered a total of 17 runs in their last six games, averaging just 2.8 runs per contest, all while missing the presence of Aaron Judge. On the other hand, the Mets have been grappling with pitching issues as their recent six-game road trip resulted in a discouraging 6.75 ERA.

The following analysis presents a brief overview of how the Yankees and Mets compare as they prepare for the Subway Series:

Mets are offensively better

The absence of Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso due to injuries has eliminated the exciting debate between the two sluggers. The Yankees have relied heavily on the impactful performances of Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres, who have collectively hit 22 home runs. However, Rizzo has been struggling recently, with just one hit in his last 30 at-bats. On the other side, the Mets have found power from the two Franciscos, Francisco Alvarez and Francisco Lindor, who have combined for 24 home runs.

The Yankees are optimistic about the resurgence of Josh Donaldson’s bat and the progress made by Willie Calhoun, while the Mets are hoping for Starling Marte to regain his power-hitting abilities and have witnessed improvements from Tommy Pham. The current Yankees roster leans more towards taking chances on promising players, whereas the current Mets roster relies more on experienced players.

Reaching the base: Advantage Mets

If the Yankees can regain full health, they may once again exhibit the disciplined and successful play that characterizes them. However, currently, the team’s performance in reaching base has declined compared to last season. They ranked fourth in on-base percentage in the previous season with .325 but currently find themselves among the bottom four teams with a .301 on-base percentage.

Unexpectedly, both Anthony Volpe (.260) and DJ LeMahieu (.297) have struggled in this aspect. On the other hand, among the healthy players participating in the series, Brandon Nimmo (.374) has excelled at getting on base for the Mets. Overall, the Mets have been average (.319) in reaching base compared to other teams.

Yankees are the king of the basepaths

The Mets have excelled in efficient base stealing, boasting a remarkable 89 percent success rate, making them the top team in baseball in this category. However, they have also struggled with making outs on the basepaths, committing 23 such mistakes this season, which places them among the worst teams in this regard. Anthony Volpe has been a standout in baserunning, showcasing his skills with 14 stolen bases and zero times being caught. However, Gleyber Torres has had a different experience, getting caught stealing five times, which is just one shy of the league lead. In terms of avoiding errors on the basepaths, the advantage leans towards the team that commits fewer mistakes.

Advantage Yankee in infield

The Yankees have a significant advantage at the corner positions, with Anthony Rizzo providing solid defense and the ability to rectify mistakes, while Josh Donaldson, who has been deserving of a Gold Glove in the past, seldom commits errors. Despite offensive challenges, Francisco Lindor remains excellent and surpasses Volpe in terms of defensive prowess. When it comes to second base, the disparity between Gleyber Torres and Jeff McNeil/Eduardo Escobar is not substantial.

Mets are stronger in outfield

Marte’s performance has shown signs of his age, but the Mets’ issues in this area are not as significant as their counterparts. The Yankees face a challenge with their outfield, as they have only one healthy natural outfielder in Billy McKinney. Due to the limited options available, McKinney has been compelled to play center field, a position he has not previously played in his MLB career. The Yankees have resorted to utilizing infielders like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jake Bauers, and Oswaldo Cabrera in the outfield, while Willie Calhoun, who lacks speed, is promptly replaced defensively, and Giancarlo Stanton is restricted to the designated hitter role at the moment.

Both have even bench strength

During a typical day, the Yankees often choose to rest one of their trio: LeMahieu, Torres, or Donaldson, with the player left out serving as a formidable pinch-hitter. Similarly, the Mets may opt to sit either Mark Canha or Pham, utilizing the excluded player as a strong pinch-hitter. Luis Guillorme and Cabrera share similarities as valuable, light-hitting contributors. Due to a relative absence of star power, both teams will aim to employ a mix-and-match strategy in the later stages of the game. Kiner-Falefa and Mark Vientos will be deployed to target left-handed pitchers from the opposing teams.

Mets have more powerful rotation

Rotation: Which is more important: exceptional performance in the current year or performance that stands out in comparison to the rest? Gerrit Cole, with his impressive 2.84 ERA, has been the standout pitcher for either team. On the other hand, Luis Severino has struggled in his last two starts with a 5.75 ERA, following his recovery from a strained lat injury. Neither of the Mets’ aging superstars have performed up to their superstar status, although Max Scherzer (3.71 ERA) has shown glimpses of his vintage form compared to Justin Verlander (4.85 ERA). However, both Scherzer and Verlander, being three-time Cy Young winners, have a history of bouncing back, and the Mets are relying on that resilience.

Yankees bullpen is the X-factor

The New York Yankees boast the most impressive bullpen ERA in Major League Baseball, standing at an exceptional 2.76. Clay Holmes, in particular, has been outstanding, surrendering only one run in his last 18 and one-third innings pitched. Michael King brings a unique skill set to the team, serving as a valuable asset. Wandy Peralta has been incredibly effective against left-handed batters, limiting them to an astonishingly low batting average of .029. Ron Marinaccio is often unhittable, providing a formidable presence on the mound. Tommy Kahnle has also displayed remarkable strength thus far.

Meanwhile, the New York Mets have a bullpen ERA of 4.34. David Robertson has been dominant, making a significant impact, while Brooks Raley and Jeff Brigham have stepped up when called upon. However, the Mets have experienced some vulnerabilities among Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, and a revolving door of middle-inning relievers, with too many cracks appearing in their bullpen performance.

Yankees have the aura

Both teams come into the game rejuvenated following Monday’s off day, with the Mets particularly relieved to be back at home after enduring six consecutive road games. The Mets are likely under more pressure, given their downward spiral and the weight of a record-breaking payroll that owner Steve Cohen expects to yield better results. Despite finding themselves in a challenging situation, the Yankees would still secure a playoff spot if the season were to end today, highlighting their potential resilience.

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