Insider points to off-field reasons rescuing Yankees’ playoff chances

St Louis — The New York Yankees’ path to October just got significantly easier, despite their recent struggles that have left fans questioning whether the defending American League champions will even make the postseason.

ESPN insider Buster Olney delivered encouraging news for Yankees supporters this week, pointing to what could be the franchise’s salvation: the easiest remaining schedule in Major League Baseball.

Schedule strength provides Yankees playoff lifeline

The Yankees have the easiest finishing schedule for any club, per FanGraphs, according to Olney’s analysis published Wednesday. This comes at a crucial time for a team that has stumbled badly since mid-June.

The Bronx Bombers currently hold just a razor-thin lead over the Cleveland Guardians for the final American League wild card spot. They’re 6.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East and just barely sneaking past the Cleveland Guardians into the AL Wild Card, with a win percentage that is just .004% better.

“The Yankees are three-quarters of the way through their schedule and Aaron Boone is still trying to figure out his bullpen — a tough place for any team to be in a pennant race, let alone the defending AL champions,” Olney wrote. “But we can look back at the ’21 Atlanta Braves and the ’23 Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks for this reminder: It is possible to find yourself late in the season. It is possible to have a turnaround. And the landscape in front of the Yankees might be as friendly as we’ve ever seen for a pennant contender.”

Favorable matchups ahead

The Yankees’ remaining opponents read like a who’s who of baseball’s struggling franchises. They finish their season with consecutive series against the Minnesota Twins, who have been the Yankees’ version of the Washington Generals over the past 25 years; the Baltimore Orioles, who are playing out the string; the Chicago White Sox, who are getting better but are still years away from contending; and then the Orioles again.

The Yankees are stumbling at the worst possible time, but their schedule provides an opportunity to right the ship before October.

Yankees remaining schedule breakdown

This scheduling fortune emerges precisely when the Yankees need it most. Since June 13, the team has compiled a disappointing 20-31 mark, threatening their championship defense. The schedule shows multiple series against teams with losing records, including two separate matchups each against the struggling White Sox and Orioles.

Recent Yankees struggles mount

The Yankees’ problems have been evident on multiple fronts. Aaron Judge, the team’s MVP candidate, recently returned from a flexor strain injury that sidelined him for nearly two weeks. The injury has limited Judge to designated hitter duties, creating a ripple effect throughout the lineup.

It has been a comedy of errors at times, but, at the minimum, they need the bullpen to figure things out. The Yankees rank in the bottom third of the majors in bullpen win probability added.

The starting rotation has also faltered since the All-Star break. Since the All-Star break, that group ranks 24th in ERA, with former ace Max Fried struggling in the second half after a strong start to the season.

Historical precedent offers hope

Olney pointed to recent championship teams that found their groove late in the season as reason for optimism. The 2021 Atlanta Braves, 2023 Texas Rangers, and 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks all made dramatic late-season surges to reach the postseason and ultimately capture World Series titles.

“Don’t be surprised if the Yankees finish the regular season with a flourish, and at least defer some of the big-picture questions that always hover over N.Y. teams,” Olney predicted.

American League landscape favors Yankees

The weakness of the American League also works in New York’s favor. The American League is absolutely wide open, which gives the Yankees an inherent advantage late in the year, Olney noted.

Unlike the National League, which features powerhouse teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Milwaukee Brewers, the AL lacks a dominant force. This creates an opportunity for a team with the Yankees’ talent level to make noise in October, provided they can secure a playoff berth.

The Yankees recently took care of business against the Minnesota Twins, winning comfortable victories on Monday and Tuesday. Early August was a nightmare for New York Yankees fans, but it’s only taken two days to restore some of the optimism.

Bullpen concerns remain

Despite the favorable schedule, significant challenges remain. The Yankees’ bullpen continues to be a source of frustration for manager Aaron Boone. The Yankees need to stop walking hitters — they’ve issued the most free passes of any staff since Aug. 1 — and stop giving away outs on defense and the basepaths.

The Yankees have struggled with fundamentals throughout their recent slide, playing what one analyst described as “an undisciplined brand of baseball” for a team with championship aspirations. However, the bullpen show in St. Louis offers a big turnaround hope.

October outlook

If the Yankees can capitalize on their favorable schedule and secure a playoff spot, they would likely face a manageable first-round opponent. If the playoffs started today, the Bombers would face a banged-up Houston Astros team — always a tough series, yes, but a winnable one.

The key will be whether the Yankees can find their form against weaker competition and build momentum heading into October. With Aaron Judge back in the lineup and a schedule filled with struggling opponents, the pieces are in place for a late-season surge.

For a franchise that began the season as a World Series favorite before watching their lead evaporate, the easiest remaining schedule in baseball might be exactly the break they need to punch their ticket to October.

What do you think?