Gambit or blunder? Yankees’ Leiter decision raises eyebrows

Before joining the Yankees, Mark Leiter Jr. was a standout performer for the Chicago Cubs, posting impressive numbers after his early July return from the injured list. Over seven outings, he threw 7 2/3 perfect innings, striking out 14 of the 23 batters he faced. Although his season ERA sat at 4.21 at the time of the trade, his underlying metrics pointed to a pitcher with the potential to maintain his success.

However, Leiter Jr.’s performance has faltered since donning the Yankees uniform. In his first month with the team, he has struggled with consistency, compiling a 6.08 ERA across 14 appearances, allowing at least one run in half of those outings. It wasn’t until his second inning against the Cardinals that Leiter Jr. finally recorded his first 1-2-3 inning as a Yankee.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone has acknowledged the pitcher’s uneven performance, noting that Leiter Jr. has made critical mistakes and struggled to finish off hitters as effectively as he did in Chicago. Boone characterized his outings as “hit or miss,” recognizing both flashes of his previous form and disappointing results overall.

“He’s obviously made some mistakes in some situations,” he explained. “Hasn’t put guys away quite as well as before he got here, especially the run he was on before he got here. That said, he’s had some really good outings for us where he has. I just feel like it’s been a little more hit or miss.”

Yankees’ surprising Leiter strategy ignores statistics

A closer look at Leiter Jr.’s stats reveals deeper issues. Prior to his recent appearance against the Cardinals, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) with the Yankees stood at 7.05, placing him 15th among all relievers with at least 10 innings since the trade deadline. FIP, which focuses on factors, such as home runs, strikeouts, and walks, is often seen as a better indicator of a pitcher’s performance than ERA because it isolates the pitcher’s control over game outcomes, excluding variables like fielding and luck.

The disparity in Leiter Jr.’s pre- and post-trade performance is stark. Before joining the Yankees, his FIP was a stellar 2.12, ranking sixth among all relievers with at least 20 innings pitched this season. This sharp decline underscores the challenges Leiter Jr. has faced adjusting to his new environment and replicating the form that made him so effective with the Cubs.

Since joining the Yankees, Mark Leiter Jr. has seen a noticeable decline in his performance, largely due to an increase in hard contact, particularly in the air. Though his strikeout rate remains strong, hitters are connecting with more power against him, resulting in a dramatic rise in his home run-to-fly ball ratio—from 8% with the Cubs to 28.6% with the Yankees. The disparity in extra-base hits allowed is telling: Leiter Jr. surrendered only two home runs and four extra-base hits over 36 1/3 innings in Chicago, but with the Yankees, he has already allowed four home runs and nine extra-base hits in just 13 1/3 innings.

Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake has pinpointed Leiter Jr.’s sinker as a primary issue. He suggests that in lower-pressure situations, Leiter Jr. might be overly focused on avoiding walks, leading to sinkers that catch too much of the strike zone and are easily hit by opposing batters.

“He’s giving up a little more slug on the sinker for the most part,” the pitching coach explained. “We’ve put him in some lower-leverage spots where he’s probably trying not to walk guys and thrown some sinkers over the plate that have been hit hard.”

Due to these struggles, Leiter Jr. has been moved to a less critical role in the Yankees’ bullpen. However, Blake remains hopeful that Leiter Jr. can bounce back, noting that there have been no changes in the pitcher’s physical condition or the movement of his pitches. Blake attributes Leiter Jr.’s recent woes to a combination of poorly located pitches and some bad luck on balls in play, as evidenced by his unusually high .424 BABIP leading up to a recent outing.

While acknowledging that the sample size with the Yankees is still small, Blake noted the significant increase in slugging percentage against Leiter Jr. compared to his time with the Cubs. The coaching staff closely monitors these trends and works with Leiter Jr. to help him recapture his previous effectiveness as a key piece of the Yankees’ bullpen.

Secure for now in Yankees bullpen role

Mark Leiter Jr.’s spot with the Yankees appears secure for now, bolstered by two more seasons of team control beyond this year. While it would be surprising for the Yankees to release him before the season concludes, Leiter Jr.’s lack of minor-league options complicates any attempts to send him down to work on his struggles.

The scenario could become more complex if injured relievers like Ian Hamilton and Lou Trivino return, alongside other arms from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, such as Scott Effross. These potential reinforcements add pressure on Leiter Jr. to improve his performance. The Yankees’ recent move to designate Enyel De Los Santos for assignment shortly after acquiring him at the trade deadline shows their willingness to make tough decisions if necessary.

Despite his current challenges, Leiter Jr. could still carve out a valuable role in the Yankees’ bullpen, albeit not in the high-leverage spots envisioned when he first joined the team. Manager Aaron Boone currently leans on pitchers like Luke Weaver, Jake Cousins, Tommy Kahnle, and closer Clay Holmes for those critical moments. However, if Leiter Jr. can refine his approach, particularly his splitter, he may find success in middle-inning roles.

Pitching coach Blake has highlighted Leiter Jr.’s splitter as one of the game’s top swing-and-miss pitches when executed correctly, generating whiffs nearly 60% of the time at its peak. Blake emphasizes the importance of Leiter Jr. staying ahead in counts to fully exploit the pitch’s effectiveness. Consistency with his other offerings in the strike zone is crucial, allowing him to use the splitter more strategically in favorable counts.

The coaching staff’s commitment to refining Leiter Jr.’s pitch mix and situational usage indicates they see untapped potential and value in his skill set, despite recent setbacks. As they work to optimize his performance, Leiter Jr. remains a bullpen piece the Yankees are not ready to give up on just yet.

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