TAMPA— The original plan was June 1. A soft target. A comfortable cushion. Thirteen months after Tommy John surgery, Gerrit Cole would ease his way back into the Yankees rotation with no pressure and no rush.
That timeline is moving. And the way Cole has looked at every step of his rehab has the Yankees quietly recalibrating. The question now is whether the Yankees are being aggressive out of confidence or out of necessity, with three starting pitchers opening the season on the injured list.
The back end concern
While Cole has been the pleasant story of the Yankees’ spring, the back of the rotation has been a genuine problem. Luis Gil and Ryan Weathers entered camp as the projected fourth and fifth starters. Neither has looked convincing. And with Opening Day in San Francisco set for March 25, the urgency around Cole’s return has taken on a different tone.
Weathers, acquired from the Miami Marlins in January, finished Grapefruit League play with a 1-3 record and an 11.68 ERA in four starts across 12.1 innings. His worst outing came March 19 against the Blue Jays in Dunedin, where he allowed seven earned runs on eight hits in three innings, surrendering a George Springer grand slam and a Daulton Varsho home run.
The numbers alarmed fans and analysts enough that manager Aaron Boone was pushed publicly to confirm Weathers‘ status for Opening Day.
Luis Gil’s spring was its own separate concern. The 2024 AL Rookie of the Year arrived in Tampa with questions already trailing him from a 2025 season disrupted by a lat injury that sapped his fastball velocity. In his AL Rookie of the Year campaign, Gil’s four-seamer averaged 96.6 mph. This spring it settled into the 94 to 95 mph range, and his strikeout rate fell with it.
Gil finished spring training with a 4.66 ERA and 19 hits allowed in 19.1 innings. Per a report by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the Yankees will open the season with a four-man rotation: Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, and Ryan Weathers. Gil was left out. The team was still deciding as of this week whether to option him to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre or carry him in a piggyback role out of the bullpen. They do not need a fifth starter until April 11, which gives the back-end starters some time before they have to face that decision directly.
Cole gets another start, and the subtext is clear
Against this backdrop, the Yankees assigned Cole to a second spring start, a two-inning exhibition against the Cubs in Mesa, Arizona on Tuesday. The move was announced as a natural progression in his Tommy John recovery. The facts support that reading. His first outing, a 10-pitch scoreless inning against the Red Sox on March 17, saw his fastball reach 98 mph with sharp command and a new over-the-head windup. It impressed everyone who watched.
“It looked like the old 45 that I’ve seen for years. If you would have told me he just got off of Tommy John and this was his first time facing live hitters, you would have never known.”
That was Aaron Judge, speaking after facing Cole in a live batting practice session on Feb. 20 that drew a crowd of Yankees front office personnel to the stands at Steinbrenner Field.
Cole’s results are encouraging. But the Yankees‘ willingness to accelerate his pitch count, from 10 pitches to a projected two-inning appearance in the span of less than two weeks, carries a secondary meaning when the fourth and fifth rotation spots look the way they do.
Boone moves the timeline, Cole stays cautious
After Sunday’s Grapefruit League finale, a 6-1 win over the Phillies, manager Aaron Boone acknowledged a shift in the projected return window for Cole.
“I think middle of May you could envision, but I don’t want to put a date on it yet. It’s still going to be a while.”
When NJ.com’s Randy Miller asked Cole directly if early May was realistic, Cole was quick with his answer.
“No way.”
But he left room for optimism on the softer June 1 target that had been the public-facing timeline since October.
“I wouldn’t commit to that. Nothing has changed. I’m still on track. I’m hoping it plays out. I’d be thrilled if it did.”
Pitching coach Matt Blake outlined the next steps. After Tuesday’s exhibition, Cole will return to Tampa while the team travels to San Francisco for the opener. He will throw at least one more live batting practice session before either repeating that step or beginning a minor league rehab assignment. The minor league season opens in early April, and Cole has said he plans to attend the Yankees’ home opener April 3 before heading out on that assignment.
“We’ll probably continue to not slow him down, but just draw it out a little bit. So he’ll probably repeat some pitch counts along the way to make sure we’re checking the boxes correctly and he’s rebounding well. We’re still not 13 months out of surgery, so I think we’re just being smart about it.”
The math behind the urgency
The Yankees open 2026 with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt all on the injured list. Cole missed all of 2025 without throwing a regular-season pitch. Rodon had elbow surgery in October and is not expected back before late April at the earliest. Schmidt’s timeline is less defined.
That leaves Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, and Weathers to carry the load until reinforcements arrive. Schlittler has been sharp this spring, flashing the stuff that made him a playoff revelation in 2025. Fried is Fried. But beyond those two, the rotation picture thins out quickly, and both Gil and Weathers carry real question marks into the regular season.
The Yankees insist they are not rushing Cole. The data backs them up. His recovery has gone cleanly, with no setbacks across bullpens, live batting practices, and one game appearance. But the rotation Cole is returning to is shakier than the one the Yankees drew up on paper in January. That context does not change what is happening in his rehab. It does change how much every mound session matters.
The urgency is not just about Cole’s readiness. It is about what the Yankees are missing. Cole did not throw a single pitch for the 2025 team that fell short in the ALDS against Toronto. Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt will also start the 2026 season on the injured list. That leaves Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren and Ryan Weathers to carry the Yankees rotation until reinforcements arrive.
The soft June 1 date is no longer the Yankees’ expectation. Mid-May is now the target. And the way Cole has looked, even that might be conservative.
Do you agree with this Yankees version?
