Yankees at crossroads: Is Clay Holmes worth another contract?

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Baseball analysts often underscore the Yankees’ knack for turning overlooked pitchers into key bullpen contributors, with Clay Holmes standing out as a prime example of this expertise. Records show that in his three seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he primarily held a setup role, logging 116 appearances with just four save opportunities but managing to record 13 holds.

Holmes’ impact shifted dramatically after joining the Yankees in 2021. His ERA plummeted from 4.93 with Pittsburgh to an impressive 1.61 over 25 games in New York, where he became a reliable bridge to then-closer Aroldis Chapman. His transformation was cemented in 2022, a breakout year in which he took over as the Yankees’ closer in April and earned his first All-Star nod. That season, he posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and converted 20 of 25 save chances. However, after maintaining form through 2023, reports indicate his performance dipped in 2024, resulting in his eventual removal from the closer role.

Analysts point out that Holmes’ journey reflects a familiar Yankees pattern with several other current free agents—seasons of brilliance punctuated by periods of inconsistency. As the Yankees consider their bullpen options this offseason, many wonder if Holmes will remain part of the roster, or if New York’s successful track record of bullpen development may lead them to explore other options.

Why should Yankees let Holmes go

Analysts suggest that Clay Holmes may be better suited to a setup role rather than closer, citing recent metrics that reveal a dip in effectiveness during critical game situations. Holmes’ performance has waned over time, as shown by eight blown saves over his first two full seasons with the Yankees and a notable rise to thirteen blown saves in 2024, which led to his reassignment to middle relief. His 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP last season were his highest since his final stint with Pittsburgh in 2021.

A closer look at Holmes’ statistics shows a declining strikeout rate, with just 68 strikeouts in 63 innings this past season. His reliance on ground balls has clashed with the Yankees’ documented infield defensive issues, which have occasionally intensified high-leverage situations. While Holmes is not solely responsible for these defensive gaps, analysts note that his ground-ball-heavy approach may not be ideal for inheriting runners in high-stakes moments.

Heading into his age-32 season, projections suggest Holmes’ strikeout ability may continue to decline. Sources familiar with the market indicate that if he pursues closer-level compensation, the Yankees might prefer to allocate those resources elsewhere. With General Manager Brian Cashman’s record of building effective bullpens and Luke Weaver’s return confirmed for 2025, the team appears prepared to address closing responsibilities without necessarily committing to Holmes in that role.

Why should Yankees give Holmes another chance

Analysts argue that the Yankees might consider re-signing Clay Holmes if he’s brought back on a short-term deal with a well-defined role in middle relief. Data shows he excels when handling clean innings in the seventh or eighth, with his performance notably improving once he stepped away from closing duties.

After a challenging appearance against the Texas Rangers where he allowed four runs, Holmes rebounded strongly in his new role. Over the final eight innings of the season, he allowed just two runs, lowering his ERA from 3.27 to 3.14. His postseason outings also reinforced his effectiveness in specialized situations. He kept a clean slate through his first six playoff appearances, covering 6.2 innings with limited hits and walks. While he stumbled in Games 4 and 5 against the Guardians, Holmes rebounded with a standout performance in the World Series, yielding only four baserunners over 4.1 innings and striking out six against the Dodgers.

Observers highlight Holmes’ impact on the Yankees’ postseason bullpen success and suggest he could deliver similar results in 2025 with carefully managed usage. His prior closing experience adds depth to Luke Weaver, offering the team flexibility throughout the season. Overall, Holmes’ performance data indicates he could be a valuable asset if deployed strategically in defined situations.

Despite possible pushback from fans, keeping Clay Holmes could be a strategically smart move for the Yankees’ bullpen. Experts suggest that, if the terms are right, placing him as Weaver’s setup man could help stabilize the relief corps, especially with Tommy Kahnle, Tim Hill, and Lou Trivino potentially departing for free agency.

While this approach might spark some controversy among fans, analysts agree that it aligns with the team’s bullpen needs and depth, making Holmes’ retention in a redefined role a logical option at the right price.

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