NEW YORK — The New York Yankees open the 2026 regular season Wednesday night in San Francisco, and the standings will begin filling in almost immediately. But the final record will only tell part of the story. Beneath the surface of this roster run several storylines that go well beyond the box score and speak to what this team could become by October.
Can Aaron Judge make history?
Only two players in Major League Baseball history have won three consecutive Most Valuable Player awards. Barry Bonds was the first, claiming four straight from 2001 through 2004. Shohei Ohtani is the most recent, sweeping the NL MVP from 2023 through 2025. Aaron Judge could join that list in 2026.
The case is not difficult to construct. Judge batted .331 in 2025, winning the AL batting title, hitting 53 home runs and driving in 114 runs across 152 games. In 2024, he launched 58 home runs with 144 RBI. He has won three of the past four American League MVP awards. The captain has shown no sign of slowing down, and his primary competition resides in the National League, where Ohtani and Juan Soto play.
In 2025, Judge became just the third player in MLB history to hit 50 or more home runs and win a batting title in the same season, joining Mickey Mantle (1956) and Jimmie Foxx (1938). His closest AL challenger last year was Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who hit 60 home runs, breaking records for the position, and helped Seattle win the AL West title. Even that record-setting performance was not enough to unseat Judge.
Bobby Witt Jr. of Kansas City is a credible threat in 2026. The young infielder finished runner-up to Judge in 2024 and could benefit from the Royals bringing their outfield walls in, which may boost his power numbers. If Kansas City returns to the postseason, Witt’s profile becomes even stronger with voters.
Voter fatigue is a real phenomenon in MVP history, but Judge has answered every challenge put in front of him. Barring injury, the burden of proof rests with anyone trying to argue against him.
Gerrit Cole’s return from the surgery
Gerrit Cole did not throw a single regular-season pitch in 2025. He underwent Tommy John surgery on March 11, 2025, and spent the year watching his teammates fall short in the ALDS. He returns in 2026 with a mid-May target and a spring fastball that touched 98 mph.
The Yankees rave about what they have seen. Cole himself has said the rebuilt elbow feels new. Aaron Judge faced him in a Feb. 20 live batting practice session at Steinbrenner Field and summed up the reaction from everyone watching.
Manager Aaron Boone moved the return window after the Grapefruit League finale, saying mid-May is now something the Yankees can envision. Whether Cole returns to 2023 Cy Young form or battles the adjustment period that catches many post-Tommy John pitchers will define the second half of the Yankees’ season more than any other single variable.
Jazz Chisholm’s contract year and a 50/50 declaration
Jazz Chisholm Jr. made things interesting this spring. The second baseman told reporters he plans to join Shohei Ohtani in the 50 home run and 50 stolen base club in 2026. Coming off a 31 HR and 31 SB season in 2025 that earned him an All-Star selection and a Silver Slugger, it is a bold target. MLB.com projects him as the Yankees’ first 40/40 player as a reasonable baseline.
He will also be a free agent after the season. The Yankees did not extend him this spring, and with the CBA expiring Dec. 1, 2026, any new deal grows more complicated by the week. Chisholm has said he wants to stay in New York.
What is on his mind is the World Series. Whether the contract situation stays in the background or becomes the defining narrative depends entirely on how his production holds up from April through September.
Anthony Volpe’s make-or-break at shortstop
Anthony Volpe had shoulder surgery in October and will begin 2026 on the injured list. Boone said the shortstop is expected to start a rehab assignment in the second week of April. In his place, Jose Caballero will man shortstop on Opening Day.
Caballero brings elite speed, having stolen 44 bases in 2024 and 49 in 2025. He entered this spring focused on adding bat speed, moving from 69.1 mph to a target of 71 mph after working at Driveline. But the real question is what happens when Volpe returns.
He has never finished a full big-league season above an 87 wRC+. He hit 119 wRC+ in April 2025 before the labrum injury dragged his numbers down to 73 wRC+ for the remainder of the year. If Caballero performs, the Yankees will face a roster decision that has no comfortable answer. This is Volpe’s most important season yet.
The bullpen’s second chance after an October disaster
The 2025 Yankees led the AL in run scoring with 849 runs and 274 home runs. They still lost the ALDS to Toronto in four games, outscored 34-19. The bullpen ERA ballooned to 6.15 in the postseason after a 4.37 regular season mark that ranked 23rd in baseball.
Devin Williams and Luke Weaver are now with the cross-town Mets. The Yankees are relying on David Bednar as the closer, with Camilo Doval and Fernando Cruz in high-leverage situations. Whether that group holds together in October, if the Yankees get there, will determine whether 2026 produces a different outcome than 2025.
The regular season begins Wednesday in San Francisco. The standings will tell you how many games the Yankees win. These six stories will tell you what kind of team they actually are.
Reclaiming the AL East from a tougher division
The Blue Jays were a bad matchup for the 2025 Yankees. Toronto won the ALDS in four games, outscoring New York 34-19. But the Yankees finished the regular season with the same 94-68 record as the Blue Jays and did not win the division, which cost them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That margin matters.
The road back to the World Series is shorter as a division winner and as the top AL seed. The Yankees had that advantage in 2024 and they need it again. The problem is the AL East has gotten harder.
The Boston Red Sox return a year more experienced with their young core. They also acquired Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez over the offseason to build a rotation that can legitimately compete with the Yankees. The Blue Jays kept a similar roster from their World Series run and added Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto, who could be in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation. The Baltimore Orioles signed Pete Alonso, are healthier, and still have Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday among the game’s most talented young position players. Even the Tampa Bay Rays, perennial pests, will find a way to be relevant.
Winning the AL East is not a formality. It will require the rotation to stay intact, the lineup to perform, and the bullpen to be something other than what it was in October 2025. Daily scoreboard watching in the AL East will be a feature of every evening from April through September.
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