MIAMI — The biggest game of the 2026 World Baseball Classic is set. Team USA will face the Dominican Republic in the WBC semifinal on Sunday night at loanDepot Park. First pitch is at 8 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
The matchup pits two former Yankees teammates against each other. Aaron Judge, the three-time AL MVP captaining Team USA, will square off against Juan Soto, the outfielder who left the Bronx last December for a 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets. It is also a clash of WBC styles. The Dominicans have been the most explosive offense in the tournament. Team USA’s greatest strength is elite starting pitching and a stacked late-inning bullpen.
Paul Skenes will start for the Americans. Luis Severino gets the ball for the Dominican Republic. This is the WBC game fans have been waiting for.
Two very different WBC paths to the semifinal
The Dominican Republic enters at 5-0. They have been dominant from the start, beating Nicaragua 12-3, the Netherlands 12-1, Israel 10-1 and Venezuela 7-5 in pool play. In Friday’s WBC quarterfinal, they destroyed South Korea 10-0 in a mercy-rule finish. Yankees catcher Austin Wells hit a three-run homer to end that game.
Through five WBC games, the Dominican lineup has scored 51 runs and hit 14 home runs, tying Mexico’s 2009 mark for the most in a single WBC tournament. They lead the event in runs, hits, homers, walks, batting average and OPS.
Team USA’s path has been far bumpier. They went 4-1 in pool play, beating Brazil, Great Britain and Mexico before a shocking loss to Italy. The Americans needed Italy to beat Mexico on the final day just to qualify for the WBC quarterfinals. They then survived a scare against Canada, winning 5-3 after blowing most of a five-run lead.
“If we’re going to win this tournament like we all believe we’re going to, it’s going to take more than home runs,” Judge said after the WBC quarterfinal. “We’ve gotta play small ball, we’ve gotta move runners, we gotta do different things just to create some offense.”
Projected Team USA lineup (baseline: quarterfinal vs Canada)
| Bat slot | Player | Pos | B/T |
| 1 | Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | R/R |
| 2 | Bryce Harper | 1B | L/R |
| 3 | Aaron Judge | RF | R/R |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber | DH | L/R |
| 5 | Alex Bregman | 3B | R/R |
| 6 | Roman Anthony | LF | L/L |
| 7 | Cal Raleigh | C | S/R |
| 8 | Brice Turang | 2B | L/R |
| 9 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | L/L |
Projected Dominican Republic lineup (baseline: quarterfinal vs Korea, with an open “DH/C” decision)
| Bat slot | Player | Pos | B/T |
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | R/R |
| 2 | Ketel Marte | 2B | S/R |
| 3 | Juan Soto | LF | L/L |
| 4 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | R/R |
| 5 | Manny Machado | 3B | R/R |
| 6 | Junior Caminero | DH | R/R |
| 7 | Julio Rodriguez | CF | R/R |
| 8 | Agustin Ramirez | C | R/R |
| 9 | Geraldo Perdomo | SS | S/R |
Skenes gives Team USA the WBC pitching edge
The single biggest advantage in this WBC semifinal belongs to Team USA and sits on Paul Skenes‘ right arm. The NL Cy Young winner posted a 2.01 ERA, 10.36 K/9 and 0.53 HR/9 over 187.2 innings in 2025. His fastball averages 98.2 mph. In the WBC pool play round, he threw four scoreless innings against Mexico with seven strikeouts.
Under WBC championship round rules, starters can throw up to 95 pitches. Skenes is expected to work about 75 to 80 pitches, which would likely carry Team USA through five or six innings before handing the game to the bullpen.
Team USA’s WBC relief corps is deep. David Bednar escaped a loaded seventh-inning jam against Canada on Friday. Garrett Whitlock and Mason Miller shut the door in the eighth and ninth. All three are available for Sunday. Jeff Hoffman replaced Clayton Kershaw on the active roster for the semifinal round, adding another high-leverage arm.
The Dominican Republic counters with Severino, a familiar name to Yankees fans. Their WBC bullpen has the advantage of freshness. The 10-0 quarterfinal win required only two pitchers, leaving the rest of the staff fully rested.
Judge and Soto square off on the WBC stage
The individual matchup between Judge and Soto adds an extra layer to this WBC semifinal. Judge led all of baseball in 2025 with a .331 batting average, .457 OBP and .668 slugging percentage. His wRC+ of 225 was the best in the majors. He has no platoon weakness, posting elite numbers against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.
In the WBC, Judge is slashing .333/.500/.583 through five games. He opened the quarterfinal against Canada with a first-inning double.
Soto has been even more dangerous in this WBC tournament. He is slashing .318/.348/.727 with two home runs through five games. His 2025 MLB season produced a 156 wRC+. The Dominican lineup around him is terrifying, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Junior Caminero all capable of leaving the park on any swing.
The “Judge vs Soto” anchor comparison
| Dimension | Aaron Judge | Juan Soto | Notes |
| 2025 MLB wRC+ | 225 | 156 | wRC+ is park/league adjusted (100 = avg). |
| 2025 OBP / SLG | .491 / .789 vs LHP; .446 / .658 vs RHP | .396 / .525 overall | Split detail available for Judge; Soto split detail not fully captured in available sources. |
| 2025 wOBA | .493 vs LHP; .454 vs RHP | .390 overall | wOBA is a linear-weights offensive measure. |
| “Clutch” signal (2025 leverage wRC+) | Low/Med/High leverage wRC+: 223 / 191 / 95 | Not available in captured sources | This is descriptive, not predictive; leverage samples are smaller and noisier. |
| WBC 2026 tournament slash (as of last ESPN boxscore shown) | .333 / .500 / .583 | .318 / .348 / .727 | These update each game; treat as “through quarterfinal.” |
Judge’s 2025 splits show no classic “platoon hole” (he was elite against both left- and right-handed pitching by wRC+), which reduces the value of trying to “matchup around him” with one specialist. Soto’s overall 2025 line shows elite OBP and top-tier offensive value (wRC+ 156) plus strong WBC slugging to date; as a left-handed bat he is naturally aligned to see the ball well against right-handed velocity, though exact 2025 L/R split values weren’t fully retrievable in the captured pages.
The Edge
Starting pitching is the most stable advantage in a one-game format. Skenes’ 2025 performance profile (2.01 ERA, 10.36 K/9, low HR rate, elite velocity) is the single strongest “bankable” input either team brings.
The Dominican Republic’s offense is the biggest threat, but it is also variance-heavy. Fourteen home runs and 51 runs in five games is extreme output; it raises the Dominicans’ true upset probability materially, but also signals that their run environment has been unusually favorable to them to date—something that can cool quickly against a Cy Young–caliber starter and strict pitch-limit management.
History and the WBC verdict
These teams have met three times in WBC history. The Dominican Republic won in 2013 (3-1) and in the 2017 first round (7-5). Team USA won later in 2017 (6-3) on its way to the title. The Americans have not won the WBC since that 2017 run.
The edge in this WBC semifinal goes narrowly to Team USA. Skenes is the most bankable single-game weapon either team has. The American bullpen has proven it can lock down a close game. Betting markets agree, with the U.S. listed as a moderate favorite at roughly 58 to 62 percent implied win probability.
FOX Sports lists a market example of USA -151 and Dominican Republic +125, implying roughly 60.2% vs 44.4%. CBS Sports cites the U.S. around -162 in one snapshot.
But the Dominican Republic has the offense to blow any game open. Fourteen home runs and 51 runs in five WBC games is a pace that can overwhelm even the best pitching. If Skenes is merely good instead of dominant, the Dominicans have the firepower to make this a short night for Team USA.
For Yankees and Mets fans, the battle between Judge and Soto is an added chapter.
Sunday night in Miami will answer the question. Two WBC powerhouses. One spot in the championship game. The biggest stage international baseball has to offer.
What do you think?
