NEW YORK — The New York Yankees face a difficult choice this winter. Trent Grisham, once considered a depth option in the Juan Soto trade, has delivered a career season that now forces the front office to consider a major financial commitment.
Major League Baseball’s qualifying offer will be about at least $22 million this offseason, according to insider Jon Heyman. The final number is set after the season. That figure complicates the Yankees’ evaluation of their breakout outfielder.
Grisham’s remarkable turnaround season
Trent Grisham entered Friday’s game against the Baltimore Orioles with career-best production. He has 33 home runs, 71 RBIs, an .821 OPS and a 130 wRC+. All are personal highs for the 28-year-old.
The performance is striking when measured against his previous struggles. From 2022 through 2024, he hit .191 with a .697 OPS and 95 wRC+. Over his first six seasons, Grisham was more known for his glove than his bat. The Yankees acquired him from the San Diego Padres as part of the Soto trade, largely as a secondary piece.
“This is a former first-round pick, talented guy. Everyone’s trajectory is not like this,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said last month. “It’s a hard game. Hitting in the big leagues is hard. You see countless examples of guys finding themselves, really figuring it out a little bit, especially offensively, as their career unfolds.”
Boone motioned a straight line as he continued. “He’s had success. He’s hit for some power, but certainly, this is the best offensive season by a lot that he’s had. I think it’s a testament to talent meeting experience and having a plan.”
The qualifying offer dilemma
The Yankees now must decide whether to extend the one-year qualifying offer. If Grisham rejects it and signs elsewhere, they would receive draft-pick compensation. Teams that sign players who decline the offer lose draft picks in return.
That penalty could shrink Grisham’s market. His breakout represents a sharp departure from his earlier career numbers, and rival clubs may hesitate to sacrifice picks for a player with such inconsistency in his track record.
“Trent Grisham, 33 homers for $5 million, is one of the better deals going,” Jon Heyman wrote in the New York Post. “As a free agent, he’ll get an enormous raise, of course.”
If Grisham accepts the offer, the Yankees would owe him $22 million in 2026. That would be a steep price compared with his career norms, but it could be justified if he repeats his 2025 production. The question is whether this season marks his true ability or a one-year surge.
Grisham has credited his performance to a better approach. In 2024, his first season in New York, he played sparingly. The Yankees signed him to a one-year, $5 million deal to avoid arbitration, expecting him to be a depth piece.
Player’s perspective on staying
Grisham has made it clear he enjoys his role in New York.
“I like this place a lot,” he said. “I like the guys we have in the clubhouse.”
While he will likely pursue long-term security after his breakout, the qualifying offer would still represent a massive raise and provide stability on a contending team.
The two-time Gold Glove winner has dealt with a hamstring injury this summer, which impacted his defense in center field. Even so, his offensive performance has outweighed any defensive decline.
Organizational considerations
The Yankees’ decision will be influenced by several factors. Aaron Judge is locked into right field. Prospects Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones are pushing for bigger roles. Cody Bellinger, who thrived in New York, is also expected to test free agency.
The Yankees are limited to extending just one qualifying offer per offseason. That restriction means the front office must prioritize who receives it.
Former Yankees outfielder Cameron Maybin voiced his opinion online, calling for Grisham to remain in pinstripes.
“Trent Grisham is having a career year, but let me guess the Yankees will let him walk after the season,” Maybin wrote. “Just bring him back on another one-year deal, why not? Not to mention he’s elite in center. Screw your defensive metrics, I watch ball.”
Financial implications and market factors
The price of the qualifying offer has climbed steadily. It was $21.05 million last year and $20.3 million in 2023. The increase reflects the rise in salaries across the league.
Grisham could attract offers in the $80-100 million range on the free-agent market. His power surge has drawn attention from multiple teams. For the Yankees, who initially viewed him as a reserve, his emergence has been an unexpected bonus.
The qualifying offer would allow the market to establish his value while keeping the Yankees protected. It represents a compromise between a one-year test and a long-term investment.
New York has built its roster around stars such as Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, with complementary pieces filling critical gaps. Grisham has been exactly that kind of contributor.
Decision timeline approaches
The Yankees must finalize their qualifying offer decisions within five days of the World Series. That deadline will force quick evaluations of roster needs and payroll structure.
Grisham’s rise from trade throw-in to centerpiece makes this decision more complicated. The Yankees now must determine whether to commit $22 million to a player who has redefined his value in one season.
The offer represents both a gamble and an opportunity. It could keep an emerging star in New York or backfire if his breakout proves fleeting.
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