PECOTA puts Yankees as No. 1 in 2023 MLB

A sketch of top Yankees players.
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Sara Molnick
Wednesday February 15, 2023

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The New York Yankees have an excellent chance to end their title drought in 2023 since they are likely to occupy the top slot in the 2023 MLB season, according to annual PECOTA projections. Baseball Prospectus released these forecasts on Tuesday and they put the Yankees as leaders in many categories.

The PECOTA projections also show how many runs a team is expected to score and how many runs it is expected to give up. They also show how likely a team is to make the playoffs, win its division, and win the World Series.

 StatsMLB rank
Runs to score731Fourth
Runs to allow568Last
W%.604First
Chances to top the division90.6%First
Chance to win the division78.9%Second
Playoff advance98.2%First
World Series win17.1%First

PECOTA projects that the Yankees will have the best record in all of baseball in the 2023 season. It predicts that the Yankees will have a record of 97.9-64.1 wins and losses. If that turns out to be true, they should be 10 games ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays, who are expected to be in second place, with a record of 89.2-72.8. The Tampa Bay Rays, who had a good season last year, will be third with a simulated score of 87-67. The Boston Red Sox, who cherish their rivalry with the Yankees, are expected to finish fourth, with the Yankees having a lead of almost 18 games.

The projections also foresee the Yankees having a better record than their cross-town rivals, the Mets. The Queens faithful will see their team leading the NL East but is expected to be at 95.8-66.2. The Houston Astros, the reigning World Series title winners, will top the AL West but with a record of 95.4-66.6.

The New York Yankees will also 98.2% rate of success in making to the playoffs. The Mets are second with 95.3% while the Astros are predicted to have 94.9% chance. It gives the Los Angeles Angels 94% forecast.

In the World Series, the Yankees are given 17.1%, the highest in the MLB. The Mets are second with 12.6% and the Angels are third at 12.4%. The Houston Astros are third with 11.8%.

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