Can the Yankees bounce back and win the ALCS?

If the history of best-of-seven series in Major League Baseball’s playoffs is any guide, the New York Yankees have a 16% probability of returning to the World Series for the first time since 2009.

The Yankees and their fans are shocked after back-to-back defeats to the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series and their championship hopes are in jeopardy. After Justin Verlander led Houston to a 4-2 victory in Game 1, Alex Bregman came through with a three-run home run to lead the Astros to a 3-2 victory in Game 2 on Thursday:

Breggy bomb! #Postseason pic.twitter.com/YOz48Kfd3h

— MLB (@MLB) October 21, 2022

The Yankees offense, which led the American League in home runs and runs scored during the regular season, just couldn’t get to Framber Valdez. The left-handed pitcher only gave up two unearned runs in seven innings, and he ended up with the third-most swings and misses in a playoff game ever.

When Ryan Pressly got Matt Carpenter to strike out on a check swing to end the game, the Astros had won their fifth straight game to start the playoffs. Sarah Langs of MLB.com says that is tied for the sixth-longest winning streak since the league started using wild cards.

This puts the focus back on the Yankees’ chances. Can they fight their way to the ALCS win?

Fightback is tough

In the American League Division Series, the Yankees weren’t getting hits and runs against the Cleveland Guardians, even though they won in the end. They were only able to score 20 runs in five games, giving them a batting average of .182. This is one of the worst records for a team that won a best-of-five series.

Even though the ALCS is only two games old, things have somehow gotten worse. The Yankees have only scored four runs and have only nine hits. Holy crap, that does say 30 strikeouts. For the playoffs, the Yankees are now hitting just.169. It’s not good and they are the second-worst team ever to play at least seven games in the postseason behind only the 2017 Chicago Cubs.

Their losses are due to an unholy combination of good pitching by opponents and bad hitting by themselves or their own bullpen and offense issues. The Yankees’ total strikeout rate in 2022 is 33.7 % and it is the highest of all time among teams that have played at least five postseason games. The Dodgers have 32.8% in 2019.

Even though Verlander and Valdez may be out of the way, for now, Games 3 and 4 will still be tough for the Yankees. Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier are ready to take the ball for Houston to start the game. On June 25, Javier had a game against New York in which he struck out 13 batters. McCullers, meanwhile, had a 2.27 ERA in eight regular-season games before throwing six scoreless innings against the Seattle Mariners in Game 3 of the ALDS.

Houston’s bullpen has the MLB-best 2.80 ERA and this is bad news for the Yankees’ offense.

But the fightback is not impossible

The Yankees have the knack and players who could win against the Astros. In Game 2, Luis Severino‘s 97 mph fastball that Bregman hit out wasn’t even a bad pitch, and Bregman’s home run wasn’t a rush job. Statcast says that the ball left the bat at a slow 91.8 mph and had only a 4% chance of being a hit.

Compare that to this one, which Aaron Judge, the American League home run leader with 62, nearly missed with a runner on in the eighth inning:

Kyle Tucker keeps it in the park! 😳 #Postseason pic.twitter.com/jUEITZarqN

— MLB (@MLB) October 21, 2022

The ball was hit at 106.3 mph and had a 91 percent chance of being hit. Manager Aaron Boone thought that it might have gotten to the seats if the roof at Minute Maid Park hadn’t been open.

The Yankees can leave Houston feeling like they got screwed, but they can also feel proud of the parts of the game where they played well. Both Severino and Jameson Taillon did well in their starting roles, and the defense, which saved the most runs in all of MLB this year, was on point.

On Thursday, Severino’s bullpen also played well. Jonathan Loáisiga and Wandy Peralta only gave up three hits and a walk in 2.2 innings of relief work. Since he last pitched on Tuesday, All-Star closer Clay Holmes has had a much-needed break.

On the pitching side, the fact that Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are set to start Games 3 and 4 is another reason to be hopeful. McCullers and Javier are both talented, but they are going up against two pitchers who had a combined ERA of 3.03 in the regular season and a 2.34 ERA in their four playoff starts so far.

The Yankees were 57-24 at Yankee Stadium and it is the best home record in the league this season.

The Yankees must overcome history

Let’s go back to how history has never been on the side of the Yankees. Only 14 of the 88 teams that have ever been down 2-0 in a best-of-seven series and come back to win have done so.

Even though it’s good that the Yankees have given the Astros a hard time in this series, the fact that they’ve still lost is just more of the same. Houston beat New York in the ALCS in 2017 and 2019 and the regular season saw the Astros winning 5-2 against the Yankees. They lost two of those games, on June 23 and 26, when they were ahead late in the game.

Saturday, Game 3 will be at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch is set for 5:07 p.m. Eastern Time (ET).

Do you think the Yankees can rewrite history and beat the Astros?