Should New York Fans Worry about August Slump?

Saturday August 20, 2022

The 2022 New York Yankees had their picture day on Wednesday, which couldn’t have come at a worse time.

Why do baseball teams take pictures in August? The trade deadline has passed, and the team that will be remembered, especially playoff teams, has become clear. This team doesn’t like how that makes sense.

People are questioning the Yankees‘ legitimacy after a historic, all-time win record-threatening start.

Since the All-Star break on September 18th, they’ve been even worse (4-12). A team that earlier this year seemed unbeatable has forgotten how to play. You might think that the baseball Monstars are filming Space Slam.

Keep the season in mind. 100% playoff odds, division title, and first-round bye for this team. Let’s look beyond the disheveled appearance after another loss.

How concerned should the Yankees be? Worries about what?

Should the Yankees be worried about their slump this summer?

However, this is not solely due to the victories and defeats.

All of their flailing and losing hasn’t affected their season’s outcome. The Yankees’ division lead is 9 games, down from 15 1/2 in early July. Only home-field advantage in the ALCS if they face the Astros has been given up.

Isn’t this level of futility a fatal flaw? A team that won’t advance in the playoffs despite reaching October?

By itself, it doesn’t mean much. Think about the Yankees’ last 16 games: they went 4-12. In 2017, from the end of August to the middle of September, the Dodgers went 1-15. They played until Game 7 of the World Series. After going 3-13, the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006. The Yankees went 3-13 in 2000. They won the World Series.

The same is true whether you look at 27 games, 33 games, or 54 games. Many playoff teams and champions have played worse.

If the Yankees’ August continues, it could raise eyebrows. The Yankees must win eight of 12 games this month to get over .400, and it’s rare to see a good team stumble after the trade deadline. In the wild-card era, 16 playoff teams had losing records in April or May. Only eight did it in August or September.

Two post-deadline swooners (the 1998 Padres and 2017 Astros) reached the World Series, and one won.

Should Yankees worry about Aaron Judge’s power?

Digging into the losing, we find more cause for concern, but the lineup is probably just bad timing. Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Carpenter’s injuries and slumps have hampered the offense since the All-Star break. Josh Donaldson, whose walk-off grand slam briefly lifted Yankees fans’ hopes, has also dropped.

With a .333/.483/.817 line since the break, Aaron Judge is on track to hit 63 home runs and win the MVP. The Yankees have the 13th best park-adjusted wRC+ over that time period. Using the Pythagorean record formula, they have scored 110 runs and given up 120. This is a stretch from 12 to 15, not from 9 to 18. Some of that is because of the Yankees.

Still above-average hitters, DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo. Stanton may start rehab this weekend. Carpenter may be out for the year, but Torres should return to form. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a defensive sacrifice, not a good hitter.

Hicks is among the worst everyday hitters, so Estevan Florial and Harrison Bader will likely cut into his playing time.

Should the Yankees be worried about the back of their rotation?

Since the All-Star break, the Yankees’ pitching has been bad. Their park-adjusted ERA is 10% higher than the league average, making them the eighth-worst team in MLB.

Right now, the rotation is a real worry. The problem is that even though the Yankees are off to a good start, they only have two healthy and reliable starters: Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes. Cortes is getting close to his career high in innings, and he risks going backwards or getting hurt.

MLB announced this month that the playoff schedule will be shorter than in the past. This means that playoff teams will likely rely on their fourth starters more than in the past. Since the Yankees traded Jordan Montgomery, this could be a problem for them. Because the other choices make Bronx nervous.

Frankie Montas, who the Yankees got in a big trade at the last minute, struggled against the Blue Jays on Thursday. It’s hard to tell if he’s still finding his form after a scare with his shoulder. Two of his starts for New York are when he has thrown his bat-missing splitter the least. If he’s having trouble with that pitch or if it’s hurting him, it could make him less effective.

Luis Severino has started bullpen sessions despite being injured. His return helps the Yankees’ playoff rotation.

Jameson Taillon has been an unreliable pitcher for a long time, so his low strikeout rate and average earned run average (ERA) are likely to stay the same. You’d feel better if he was competing with Montgomery for a spot in the playoffs.

Domingo German is a less-than-average pitcher. He strikes out 18.5% of batters, and Statcast data suggests he may give up more runs than his 4.45 ERA says. The Yankees may have liked 26-year-old left-handed pitcher JP Sears as a backup, but they included him in the deal for Montas.

Should the Yankees be worried about the bullpen?

Yes. The Yankees’ superpower is in doubt right now. Clay Holmes’ wildness and back spasms have him on the IL. Michael King’s injury ended his season.

Aroldis Chapman is set to close again, but he hasn’t earned the job. Manager Aaron Boone said Scott Effross could play. Jonathan Loaisiga is a key piece. The dominant right-hander missed two months this season. Since returning, his results are OK, but he’s not striking out enough to be confident.

This may be the most important thing to watch for the Yankees’ postseason hopes. To be truly daunting, Holmes, Chapman, or preferably both, must click.

What do you think, leave a comment below?