TAMPA, Fla. — The 2026 World Baseball Classic does not start for another three weeks. Aaron Judge has not taken a single at-bat in the tournament. And yet, oddsmakers have already made up their minds.
The Yankees captain and three-time AL MVP is the betting favorite to win WBC MVP, according to multiple sportsbooks. He leads the board ahead of Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Paul Skenes. For a player making his WBC debut, that is quite the statement from the oddsmaking world.
But before we get to what the books are saying, it is worth understanding why Judge wanted to be here in the first place.
Why the timing finally works for Judge
Judge sat out the 2023 WBC. That winter, he was the top free agent in baseball. After re-signing with New York and being named the franchise’s first captain since Derek Jeter, he felt compelled to spend all of spring training with his teammates. He understood the weight of the captaincy and did not want to split his focus.
Three years later, the calculus has changed. Team USA manager Mark DeRosa named Judge team captain last April. The 33-year-old slugger, who turns 34 in April, jumped at the chance.
“I’ve never had the opportunity to represent the USA, and getting a chance to wear that across my chest is going to be pretty powerful,” Judge told reporters at Yankees spring training Monday. “I think a lot of people have a lot of pride for their country.”
Watching Team USA fall to Japan in the 2023 final was a gut punch. Ohtani struck out Mike Trout for the last out, handing Japan its third title. Judge did not want to sit on the sideline again.
“I’m definitely hoping to see them down there in the finals,” Judge said of Japan. “They’re the reigning champs. They got a great squad coming back. I think that’s why Team USA really bulked up this year to go out there and take care of business.”
The oddsmakers have Judge on top
The betting lines back up the hype. BetOnline and several other sportsbooks have installed Judge as the WBC MVP favorite, per Louisiana Sports. Ohtani, the 2023 WBC MVP and four-time MLB MVP, sits right behind him. Skubal, the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner who will anchor Team USA’s rotation, rounds out the top three. Harper, Schwarber and Skenes complete the top six.
Team USA itself is the tournament favorite at +110, carrying an implied probability of about 48 percent to win the title. Japan is next at +370, followed by the Dominican Republic at the same number.
Judge’s 2025 numbers make the case easy. He hit .331 with 53 home runs and a 1.145 OPS while earning his third AL MVP. He edged Cal Raleigh by a razor-thin 17-13 margin in first-place votes. His lineup for Team USA includes Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Raleigh and Harper, forming what may be the most stacked American batting order in WBC history.
On the mound, Skenes and Skubal give the Americans arguably the two best starting pitchers in baseball. Mason Miller is expected to close games. The roster is deep, talented and motivated.
| World Baseball Classic MVP | ||
| Aaron Judge (USA) | 15/2 | (+750) |
| Shohei Ohtani (JPN) | 12/1 | |
| Tarik Skubal (USA) | 13/1 | |
| Bryce Harper (USA) | 16/1 | |
| Kyle Schwarber (USA) | 16/1 | |
| Paul Skenes (USA) | 16/1 | |
| Gunnar Henderson (USA) | 17/1 | |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (USA) | 25/1 | |
| Juan Soto (DOM) | 27/1 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (DOM) | 27/1 | |
| Cal Raleigh (USA) | 30/1 | |
| Munetaka Murakami (JPN) | 30/1 | |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. (VEN) | 30/1 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto (JPN) | 30/1 | |
| Kazuma Okamoto (JPN) | 35/1 | |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (DOM) | 40/1 | |
| Ketel Marte (DOM) | 45/1 | |
| Eugenio Suarez (VEN) | 55/1 | |
| Manny Machado (DOM) | 55/1 | |
| Sandy Alcantara (DOM) | 60/1 |
Harper cannot wait to bat near Judge
Judge’s teammates are already feeding off his presence. Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper, who will bat near Judge in the Team USA lineup, made that clear over the weekend.
“I’m into the feeling of putting USA on your chest and playing for something so much bigger than yourself, representing your whole country going in,” Harper told reporters. “There’s nothing greater. Having Aaron Judge hit behind me is going to be a lot of fun as well. That’s going to be really cool.”
Trout, the former Team USA captain who is not participating this year because his contract could not be insured, expressed his confidence in Judge’s leadership.
“What he’s doing, what he’s done in the past few seasons, and his whole career, I’m a big fan of Judge,” Trout said. “We talk a lot. It’s good to see him doing that, and him being a leader, the top guy. He deserves it.”
Judge is healthy and ramping up fast
There were health questions entering camp. A flexor tendon strain limited Judge to DH duties for part of last season and compromised his throwing arm in right field. But an MRI after the season cleared him of the need for surgery. He started throwing earlier than usual this winter and arrived in Tampa ahead of schedule.
Judge said the elbow is “feeling great” and that he is throwing with confidence. Yankees manager Aaron Boone plans to give him more Grapefruit League action than normal so he is close to game shape before departing for Team USA’s camp in Arizona on March 1.
Pool play opens March 6 when the United States faces Brazil in Houston. If the Americans reach the final on March 17 in Miami, Judge could be standing in the box with everything on the line against Ohtani and Japan. It would be the WBC’s biggest stage.
“I haven’t played him in the WBC,” Judge said of Ohtani. “Hopefully, this will be my first time. There’s really no grudge match. It’s about me representing the U.S. for the first time and going out there and bringing the gold home.”
The sportsbooks think he has the best shot of anyone on the planet to earn the tournament’s top individual honor. For a player who has never worn the USA jersey in competition, that says everything about where Aaron Judge stands in the game right now.
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