2024 ALCS: Yankees-Guardians position-by-position matchup analysis
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Follow UsThe American League Championship Series (ALCS) will feature a rematch between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians, following their previous meeting in the 2022 ALDS, where the Yankees came out on top. Both teams recently concluded their Division Series, with the Yankees defeating the Kansas City Royals in four games and the Guardians edging past the Detroit Tigers in a five-game series.
The ALCS is set to begin on Monday in New York, with the winner advancing to face either the Los Angeles Dodgers or the New York Mets in the World Series. This best-of-seven matchup adds another chapter to the intense postseason rivalry between the two franchises, which holds the record for the most playoff encounters in Yankees history.
Historically, the Yankees hold a narrow advantage in their postseason meetings with the Guardians, boasting a 27-24 record in playoff games. Their encounters include notable series such as the 1997 ALDS (won by Cleveland), the 1998 ALCS (won by New York), the 2007 ALDS (Cleveland), the 2017 ALDS (New York), the 2020 Wild Card Series (Yankees), and the recent 2022 ALDS (another Yankees victory).
The schedule for the ALCS has been confirmed, with Games 1 and 2 taking place in New York on Monday, October 14, and Tuesday, October 15, both starting at 7:37 p.m. ET. The series will shift to Cleveland for Games 3 and 4 on Thursday, October 17, and Friday, October 18. If needed, Game 5 will also be hosted in Cleveland on Saturday, October 19. Should the series go beyond that, Games 6 and 7 will return to New York on Monday, October 21, and Tuesday, October 22. All games will be aired on TBS, with the first two also available on truTV and Max.
This series is poised to be an exciting continuation of the storied postseason rivalry between these franchises, as both teams vie for a coveted spot in the World Series.
The New York Yankees have strengthened their chances of winning the American League Championship Series (ALCS) thanks to a notable uptick in their bullpen performance. In the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals, the Yankees’ relief pitchers, including Weaver, Kahnle, and Holmes, showcased their skills by limiting Kansas City to a .143 batting average while striking out 15 batters over 15 2/3 scoreless innings. Although the Cleveland Guardians had the best bullpen during the regular season, the Yankees’ recent surge in this area could diminish Cleveland’s advantage.
Offensively, the Yankees seem to have the upper hand over the Guardians. New York’s lineup features significantly more power than that of Cleveland. If players such as Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe, and Oswaldo Cabrera maintain their strong hitting, they could place substantial pressure on the Guardians’ pitching staff. The Yankees are also looking for breakout performances from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, two of the league’s premier hitters this season. If these power hitters find their rhythm, Cleveland may struggle to keep pace.
Conversely, the Guardians have a roadmap to victory rooted in the unexpected leadership of rookie manager Stephen Vogt. Despite preseason projections predicting a 75-85 win season, Vogt has led the team to the ALCS, winning over the fan base in the process.
Cleveland’s strategy hinges on utilizing their strong bullpen and making the most of timely hitting, a formula that worked well in their series victory over the Detroit Tigers. As one of the smaller-market teams remaining in the playoffs, the Guardians are eager to defy the odds against a high-profile opponent like New York.
Additionally, the Guardians are motivated by a long history. It has been 76 years since the franchise last claimed a World Series title. While the Yankees’ 15-year championship drought is significant, Cleveland’s much longer wait adds an extra layer of urgency as they aim for success in this series.
Yankees vs. Guardians matchup
The postseason rivalry between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians has emerged as a prominent chapter in recent baseball history, even eclipsing the classic Yankees-Red Sox rivalry in playoff encounters. The upcoming American League Championship Series (ALCS), scheduled to start Monday night in New York, adds another layer to this long-standing postseason matchup.
Since 1997, the two teams have clashed in six previous playoff series, with the Yankees holding a narrow lead in overall games played at 27-24. Their postseason history includes matchups across various rounds, from the Division Series to the Championship Series and Wild Card rounds.
As both teams gear up for their latest playoff showdown, a position-by-position analysis reveals the strengths and weaknesses of each roster:
Backstop battle
The Yankees hold the edge with rookie Austin Wells, who has excelled both defensively and offensively. Wells ranks fourth in Fielding Run-Value among catchers with at least 500 innings caught, boasting a solid .718 OPS and 103 OPS+. His strong performance may position him as a contender for the AL Rookie of the Year award. In contrast, Cleveland’s Bo Naylor, now in his second year, has struggled at the plate with a .201/.264/.350 slash line, though he has made strides defensively.
The first base
The Guardians take the lead here with Josh Naylor, a first-time All-Star who set career highs this season with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs. While Naylor can be susceptible to slumps due to chasing pitches, he possesses the ability to get extremely hot at the plate. The Yankees, meanwhile, are coping with the absence of Anthony Rizzo due to a hand injury, using Jon Berti—a 34-year-old making his first appearance at first base—and utility player Oswaldo Cabrera to fill the void.
Gleyber vs. Gimenez at second base
In the matchup at second base, Gleyber Torres of the New York Yankees has demonstrated significant improvement recently. After experiencing struggles and being benched earlier in the season, Torres finished September with an impressive .333/.387/.472 slash line and has carried that momentum into the postseason, achieving a .400 on-base percentage as the leadoff hitter. On the other hand, Andres Gimenez of the Cleveland Guardians has seen his offensive production decline since his 2022 All-Star season, with his OPS+ dropping from 141 in 2022 to 82 in 2024. Nevertheless, Gimenez remains a defensive asset and is a strong contender for his third consecutive Gold Glove. While the defensive disparity is notable, Torres’ current offensive threat gives the Yankees an advantage in this position.
Shortstop battle between Volpe and Rocchio
At shortstop, both teams have faced challenges regarding offensive output. Yankees rookie Anthony Volpe has shown considerable defensive improvement, ranking sixth with 13 outs above average, but he recorded a modest .657 OPS and 86 OPS+ in 2024. Guardians rookie Brayan Rocchio, also a solid defender, finished with even lower regular-season statistics, posting a .614 OPS and 76 OPS+. Despite Rocchio’s surprising six-hit performance in the ALDS, Volpe’s overall stronger offensive and defensive metrics throughout the season give the Yankees a slight edge here.
Chisholm faces Ramirez at third base
The third base comparison heavily favors the Guardians. Although the Yankees’ midseason acquisition of Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins has been beneficial—Chisholm posted an impressive .825 OPS with 11 home runs and 18 steals in just 46 games—he is up against one of the league’s elite players, Jose Ramirez.
Ramirez nearly reached a 40-40 season, falling just one home run short, and his impact was evident in the ALDS, where he hit his hardest home run of the year and was intentionally walked three times by the Tigers. His exceptional performance and game-changing ability provide the Guardians with a clear advantage at third base.
Yankees’ DAWG mans left field
In left field, the Cleveland Guardians hold a distinct advantage with All-Star Steven Kwan. Renowned for his exceptional defensive skills and contact hitting, Kwan elevated his power numbers this season, finishing with a .292/.368/.425 slash line and a career-high 14 home runs. Despite encountering some difficulties in the second half, including back issues, he bounced back impressively in the ALDS, collecting 11 hits and two walks, solidifying his status as a key lead-off hitter.
The New York Yankees, on the other hand, have been experimenting with their left-field position, primarily relying on Alex Verdugo. Although Verdugo faced challenges this season, his experience came through when he delivered the go-ahead RBI in Game 1 of the ALDS, providing a glimpse of his potential impact. Jasson Domínguez remains an option for the Yankees, but Verdugo’s recent contributions have kept him in the lineup.
Judge dominates center field
The center field features a compelling matchup. The Guardians’ Lane Thomas, acquired midseason, initially struggled but emerged as a postseason standout. His strong performance in September, capped by two critical home runs in the ALDS, including a pivotal grand slam in Game 5, has made him a fan favorite in Cleveland.
However, the Yankees possess the upper hand in center field with Aaron Judge. Despite a current postseason slump—hitting just .154 with no home runs—Judge’s remarkable regular-season stats, which include 58 home runs, 144 RBIs, a 1.159 OPS, and an 11.2 fWAR, give him a notable edge over Thomas.
Soto vs. many on right field
In right field, the Guardians are expected to employ a platoon strategy, utilizing Will Brennan against right-handed pitchers and Jhonkensy Noel against lefties. Conversely, the Yankees have a clear advantage with Juan Soto, whose impressive regular-season numbers—41 home runs, a .419 on-base percentage, and a .569 slugging percentage—along with his continued strong performance in October, further solidify New York’s position in this matchup.
Stanton vs. Cleveland’s platoon
In the designated hitter role, the Yankees maintain an advantage with Giancarlo Stanton. Despite facing various lower body injuries that have impacted his performance, Stanton continues to demonstrate his power-hitting abilities, particularly in postseason play. His performance in Game 3 of the ALDS, where he doubled, hit a go-ahead home run and stole a base, exemplifies his playoff prowess. Stanton’s postseason home run rate (one per 9.33 at-bats) is remarkably close to Babe Ruth’s historic rate (8.60).
The Guardians employ a platoon strategy at DH, utilizing rookie Kyle Manzardo against right-handed pitchers and David Fry against lefties. While Fry has had an impressive season, earning All-Star status and playing a heroic role in the ALDS, his opportunities may be limited against the Yankees’ predominantly right-handed pitching staff.
The battle of aces
Regarding starting pitching, the Yankees hold a slight edge. Although Gerrit Cole hasn’t consistently pitched at his usual elite level, he remains capable of dominant performances, as evidenced by his Game 4 clincher in the ALDS. Clarke Schmidt has had a breakthrough year with a 145 ERA+ in 16 starts and performed well in the ALDS. However, questions surround Carlos Rodón’s performance in pinstripes and Luis Gil’s recent struggles with his walk rate. Nestor Cortes, recovering from a left elbow injury, might be available for this series.
The Guardians’ rotation, once a team strength, has faced challenges this season. Shane Bieber’s early-season right elbow injury, Triston McKenzie’s struggles, and other setbacks have altered their pitching landscape. Cleveland now relies heavily on young talent like Tanner Bibee and midseason veteran acquisitions Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb. However, the team is likely to have a quick hook with their starters.
This analysis of the DH position and starting rotations suggests that while both teams have their strengths, the Yankees may have a slight overall advantage in these areas heading into the ALCS.
Bullpen decider
The Cleveland Guardians hold the edge in the bullpen matchup, even with recent improvements from the New York Yankees. The Yankees have revamped their relief staff, with Luke Weaver stepping up as a dependable closer. Their bullpen’s performance during the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals was notable, as they delivered 15 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings.
However, Cleveland’s bullpen has been the most effective in Major League Baseball this season. Led by standout closer Emmanuel Clase and bolstered by emerging setup options Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin, the Guardians’ relief corps posted a 2.57 ERA, ranking as the fourth-best since the Wild Card era began in 1995. Despite showing some cracks in the ALDS, their bullpen remains a key strength.
Who holds the edge?
Several factors influence predictions for the series outcome. The Yankees wrapped up the regular season with an American League-best 94 wins and a remarkable plus-147 run differential. With home-field advantage and a drive to break a 15-year pennant drought, they enter the series with added motivation. Their swift victory over the Royals in the ALDS has also given them extra rest.
While New York has several advantages, the Guardians’ formidable bullpen could prove pivotal. Cleveland’s relievers possess the ability to control games and mitigate the Yankees’ offensive power. However, the heavy usage of the Guardians’ bullpen throughout the season and in the ALDS may hinder their performance in a longer series.
Weighing all factors, including the Yankees’ overall strength and home-field advantage against the Guardians’ strong bullpen and potential fatigue, the forecast suggests the Yankees will win the series in six games. This prediction acknowledges New York’s favorable position while recognizing Cleveland’s capability to keep the competition fierce with its pitching depth.
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