October outlook: Yankees eye playoff edge, but questions remain
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Follow UsAs the Yankees gear up for their playoff run, manager Aaron Boone hailed the resilience they displayed in overcoming challenges. He pointed to the team’s strong start, noting they had posted a 49-21 record over their first 70 games, despite being without ace Gerrit Cole, who missed nearly three months with elbow nerve inflammation. This early success, according to the Yankees skipper, was a testament to the depth and adaptability of the roster.
However, the season wasn’t without its rough patches. The Yankees stumbled through their next 70 games, going 31-39, which tightened their lead in the AL East to just half a game. But by mid-September, they pulled away from the Baltimore Orioles to secure their division.
Boone praised his team’s ability to respond to adversity, admitting the road hadn’t always been smooth. Still, he was proud of how the Yankees fought through tough stretches to put themselves in position for postseason success.
“They’ve answered every challenge this year,’’ he proudly said. “It hasn’t always been easy, but (I’m) proud that we’ve put ourselves in this position to take our shot.’’
Yankees’ reasons for optimism
A major reason for optimism, according to Boone, is the home-field advantage they secured as the top AL seed. That advantage could mean hosting a potential Game 5 in the ALDS, as well as Games 6 and 7 in the ALCS if needed.
Interestingly, the Yankees performed better on the road this year, boasting a 50-31 record compared to 44-37 at Yankee Stadium. Yet the manager emphasized that the postseason presents a different scenario, where the comfort of playing at home could become a decisive factor.
Boone pointed to the historical significance of this advantage, especially when looking back at the Yankees’ recent playoff matchups with the Houston Astros. In 2017, 2019, and 2022, the Yankees lost to Houston in the ALCS, with the Astros holding home-field advantage in the decisive games each time.
While this year’s Astros may not seem as dominant as in previous seasons, Boone acknowledged, that having that extra home game could be a crucial edge if the two teams face off again in the ALCS.
For the Yankees, securing home-field advantage represents a significant shift from their recent postseason history. Boone is hopeful this time it might make the difference in their pursuit of success in the 2024 playoffs.
The 2024 season has been defined by a historic performance from the Yankees’ power-hitting duo at the heart of their lineup. Aaron Judge is poised to capture another AL MVP Award following an outstanding season where he posted a .322 batting average, led the league with 58 home runs, and drove in 144 RBIs. Juan Soto, in what could be his lone season in New York, also delivered as expected, hitting .288 with 41 home runs, 109 RBIs, and a .989 OPS.
Both players were exceptional in reaching base, with Soto recording three on-base appearances in 51 games—second only to Judge’s 57. As the Yankees look to the postseason, their chances of success will depend heavily on the continued production and plate discipline of this potent duo.
For Soto, already a World Series champion, a standout October could significantly boost his stock heading into free agency. Meanwhile, Judge is aiming for a stronger postseason performance after a tough showing in 2022, when he went 1-for-16 with no RBIs in the ALCS against Houston. That slump was attributed, in part, to the physical and mental strain of chasing the American League home run record.
On the mound, ace Gerrit Cole enters the postseason on a high note, having bounced back from a rocky start against Boston. Over his final two starts of the regular season, Cole allowed just one run across 15.2 innings. While Cole was limited to 17 starts this year due to earlier injury issues, he expressed a desire for more innings, though manager Aaron Boone emphasized Cole’s strong form over the past month. With eight days of rest, Cole is set to start Game 1 of the ALDS, giving him extra freshness as the Yankees begin their playoff run.
In the bullpen, the Yankees appear to have found stability with Luke Weaver, who took over the closer role from Clay Holmes in early September. Weaver has excelled in the position, delivering eight scoreless outings spanning 11 innings. During this stretch, he notched three wins, four saves, a hold, and struck out 24 batters while walking only three.
With Judge and Soto anchoring the offense, Cole finishing the regular season strong, and Weaver stepping up as a reliable closer, the Yankees head into the postseason with a sense of optimism. If these key players perform at their peak, New York’s chances of making a deep playoff run are significantly enhanced.
As the Yankees gear up for their postseason campaign, several key concerns have surfaced that may impact their chances for a deep playoff run.
Yankees still face challenges
One of the most pressing issues is the absence of pitcher Nestor Cortes, who will miss the ALDS due to a left elbow flexor strain. His availability for the rest of the postseason remains uncertain. Cortes had been in excellent form prior to his injury, posting a 1.58 ERA and holding opponents to a .186 batting average over his last seven starts, spanning 40 innings. His absence leaves the Yankees without one of their most reliable and versatile pitchers at a critical time.
Clarke Schmidt is expected to step into the playoff rotation behind Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, but Cortes’ presence would have provided the team with a valuable tandem option alongside Schmidt or rookie Luis Gil. Gil, however, has struggled to maintain his early-season form. This decline is not surprising, given that Gil is in his first full season following Tommy John surgery and has already exceeded his previous career innings totals.
On the offensive side, the Yankees face uncertainty at two key positions: left field and first base. The decision not to promote top prospect Jasson Dominguez earlier or give him more playing time in Triple-A left field may be looming large. Dominguez struggled during his September stint with the Yankees, hitting just .179 with a .617 OPS and showing some defensive shortcomings. These struggles could lead the team to turn back to the more defensively reliable Alex Verdugo, despite his extended offensive slump. The Yankees now face a tough decision on whether Dominguez will make the ALDS roster.
Further complicating matters is the untimely injury to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who fractured two fingers, sidelining him at a crucial moment. Rizzo’s absence not only weakens the Yankees’ infield defense but also diminishes the depth of their lineup. The team is now considering rookie Ben Rice and utility player Oswaldo Cabrera as potential first-base options, though neither is a natural at the position.
These challenges—a key pitching loss, uncertainty in left field, and a sudden hole at first base—will put significant pressure on manager Aaron Boone as he tries to navigate the Yankees through the postseason. How effectively the team adjusts to these obstacles may be a decisive factor in determining their success in October.
Will playing in the Bronx help the Yankees?
As the Yankees get ready for their postseason run with home-field advantage, there are signs that their potential opponents in the ALDS may not be fazed by facing them in the Bronx. Despite the powerful presence of stars like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at the plate, along with Gerrit Cole’s standout performances on the mound, the team does not seem to instill the same level of intimidation in rivals as it has in past seasons.
The Baltimore Orioles, in particular, have shown they can compete effectively with the Yankees, having won the season series for the second year in a row with an 8-5 record. Cole acknowledged the respect the Yankees have for Baltimore, emphasizing their status as a formidable opponent.
While the Kansas City Royals struggled against the Yankees during the regular season, winning just two of their seven matchups, they could still emerge as a significant threat if they manage to topple the Orioles in their playoff encounter. A victory at Camden Yards would likely bolster the Royals’ confidence and momentum, especially with the impressive play of young shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
Manager Aaron Boone noted that the Yankees will be closely watching the series between the Orioles and Royals, recognizing that either team could present a considerable challenge in the ALDS. This awareness indicates that the Yankees are not underestimating their potential foes, understanding that postseason baseball often yields surprising outcomes.
The perceived lack of a collective “fear factor” associated with the Yankees, aside from their star players, could create a more level playing field in the upcoming series. This reality underscores the need for a comprehensive team effort from the Yankees to overcome their challenges and progress further in the postseason.
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