The New York Yankees have flirted with a pace that would challenge the single-season record of 116 wins for much of the season. Even if they don’t reach 116 wins, and even if they don’t finish with the best record in MLB, New York is a postseason lock and a strong bet to win the AL East for the first time since 2019.
The Yankees needed help just to make the playoffs last year, so they traded for Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo, and others at the deadline. This year, they’re a postseason lock, and they’ll prioritize players who can have a big impact in October, rather than August and September. However, GM Brian Cashman has stated that the team’s record will not change their deadline plans.
Cashman was the manager of the 114-win Yankees in 1998, and that team did not make a trade before the trade deadline, despite making a run at Hall of Famer Randy Johnson. That serves as a reminder that, despite the Yankees’ exceptional season, Cashman will not make a move simply for the sake of making a move. It must make sense for the current lineup at the current price.
The Yankees are roughly $7.7 million short of the $270 million third competitive-balance tier, according to FanGraphs. If they spend more than $270 million, their first-round draft pick in 2023 will be moved back 10 spots. In 2019 and 2020, the Yankees handled the third threshold as a hard cap. If they do it again, they’ll have to get creative to make any impact deadline additions financially feasible. But these are the Yankees, and they’re having a fantastic season. This is not the time to impose an arbitrary payroll limit.
Let’s take a look at the Bronx Bombers ahead of the Aug. 2 trade deadline.
Needs
The Yankees have a lot of needs for a team that is on pace to win well over 100 games. Unloading and replacing the outmatched Gallo is essential, but Matt Carpenter’s emergence reduces the need for a lefty power bat. The Yankees appear content with Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop, but even if they wanted to replace him, the trade market is devoid of impact shortstops. Any offensive upgrades are likely to come in the outfield and possibly on the bench.
With Luis Severino’s recent lat strain, as well as Jameson Taillon and Nestor Cortes getting struck with the home run rate regression stick in recent weeks, the Yankees should be looking for a starter, not just a reliever. The stars are aligned for a trade for a starting pitcher with impact. Every contender could benefit from bullpen help, and the Yankees are no exception, especially with Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Loáisiga struggling and Michael King now out for the season.
Potential targets
Juan Soto would more than replace Gallo in New York’s lineup, and he’s under team control until 2024, so the Yankees would get him for three postseason runs. In addition, Aaron Judge turned down a large contract extension in spring training. Acquiring Soto would give the Yankees a little more negotiating power with Judge, and could even allow them to move on entirely.
Reynolds is the next best thing as an effective, contact-oriented switch hitter who gets on base, has power, and can perform center field. Reynolds is also under team control until 2025, so acquiring him is a win-now and win-later move.
When Benintendi was unable to play in Toronto due to his vaccination status, it appeared that a trade to the Yankees was off the table, but that is not the case. They’re still in the mix and Benintendi, a rental is offensively the polar opposite of Gallo. Benintendi will be traded before the deadline. The Yankees are as logical a destination as any other team.
Happ, unlike Benintendi, is not a rental. He will be under team control until 2023, which may appeal to a Yankees team that is unsure whether to re-sign Judge after the season.
The Diamondbacks have a glut of young outfielders, and the soon-to-be 35-year-old Peralta is out, either at the deadline or as a free agent after the season.
Every contender wants Castillo, a two-time All-Star with upper-90s gas and one of the best changeups in the game. Two weeks ago, the Yankees got their first look at him. Castillo would be an obvious fit for the Yankees, and he would also be under team control next season. He’s not for rental.
Montas is comparable to Castillo, and he is also under team control until next season. The two are very similar. Castillo, on the other hand, isn’t coming off a recent shoulder injury. However, if Montas is truly healthy now, he might be the better value.
Robertson, 37, is having a fantastic season in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, and he is the type of rental high-leverage reliever who can help any contender.
Bard, a 37-year-old free-agent-to-be. Bard has an upper-90s sinker and misses bats while getting ground balls, which is exactly what the Yankees’ bullpen is built around these days.
The Matt Chapman and Matt Olson trade significantly weakened Oakland’s defense, and Trivino has seen a slew of ground balls as a result. He’s a much better pitcher than his ERA suggests, and he’s exactly the type of buy-low opportunity that smart teams seek.
Trade chips
Gallo has little to no trade value and is best suited for a change of scenery. Padres general manager AJ Preller briefly worked with Gallo in the Rangers’ front office and has long been a fan, and Preller may jump at the chance to get Gallo on the cheap. However, he will not provide a significant return. Neither will 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar. These two aren’t necessarily “trade chips,” but they are readily available.
The Yankees have 3 consensus top-100 prospects Jason Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, and Oswald Peraza. Outfielder Everson Pereira and lefty Ken Waldichuk have also been named to some top 100 lists. The Yankees adore Volpe, and he is likely to be off-limits, possibly even in a Soto trade. Dominguez is not untouchable, but he would be difficult to extract. I believe Peraza, Pereira, and Waldichuk are the best prospects available to the Yankees at the deadline.
Last year, the Yankees used the deadline to clear out a 40-man roster stalemate. They have a deep-farm system, so instead of potentially losing prospects in the Rule 5 Draft at the end of the season, they can package a few to get big-league help. Catcher Josh Breaux, lefty Matt Krook, and righties Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez are all on the 40-man roster and could be moved before the deadline. Breaux, Brito, and Krook are all Triple-A players who are close to being ready for the big leagues, making them appealing to rebuilding teams that don’t want to wait for a lower minors prospect to develop.
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