How a ‘level-headed’ Nestor Cortes stacks up in his first ALDS start

Thursday October 13, 2022

Nestor Cortes will start in the playoffs for the first time on Thursday (rain has pushed it to Friday). It is the Yankees‘ ALDS Game 2 against the Guardians and is very important for them. New York is already up 1-0 in the best-of-five series against Cleveland.

The Yankees’ most trusted pitcher enters this American League Division Series with 12 wins, a trip to the All-Star Game, and the talk around town that he, not Gerrit Cole, should have started Game 1 against the Guardians.

Nestor Cortes has never been a hero though his following is increasing fast for some time now, and it’s time to get to that status. Cortes’s funky delivery has changed a lot, which may be a move to avoid being called a novelty act. However, he is still very good at what he does. Since getting back from the injured list at the end of August, when he hurt his groin, Nestor Cortes has been striking out batters off the plate in a more uncomplicated way to the delight of die-hard Yankees fans.

Cortes, who in the last three years has gone from being a strange reliever to a key starter, is excited, ready, and going up against the Guardians with the chip on his shoulder he always has.

Since his first start back from the injured list on September 8, the first-time All-Star has only given up 12 hits and 4 earned runs in 27.1 innings. This gives Nestor Cortes an earned run average of 1.32 and a batting average of .130 against. During that time, he has struck out 30 batters (including 12 Orioles in his last preseason game) and walked only eight. He hasn’t given up a home run yet. Nestor Cortes is on fire at the right time, and the team on the other side won’t be able to scare him.

The Guardians aren’t a good hitting team, and against lefties, they perform even worse. Their average drops from .259 against right-handed pitchers to .240 against left-handed pitchers. Cleveland had a weak 84 wRC+ and .646 OPS against southpaws, which put them at 27th and 28th in the league out of 30 MLB teams.

This is a bit strange since only three of Cleveland’s regular players hit left-handed. Nestor Cortes won’t be so hard to beat that the Guardians will have to switch to a bunch of leftists. The fact that there are so many right-handers ready to fight him is part of the problem. This season, when a left-handed pitcher was on the mound, right-handed batters for Cleveland hit .234/.294/.348 (.642 OPS). Their 81 wRC+ in that situation is the worst in the American League. The Marlins are the only team that keeps them from being at the bottom of the MLB table.

Some analytically-minded Yankee fans had been calling for Nestor Cortes to start Game 1, and this was the reason. Gerrit Cole showed why he is an ace in 6.1 innings on Tuesday, so it doesn’t matter anymore. But Nestor Cortes is an even worse matchup for Cleveland. Perhaps worse for the Guardians, they had a lot of trouble with the exact types of pitches that Cortes uses.

As he headed to a workout session at Yankees Stadium, Nestor Cortes told:

“Obviously you start becoming more comfortable and you start thinking ahead. I think as far as what I try to do is like I said, stay in the moment. I want to cherish every day, even if I’m not pitching, and for me to be able to do that, I think that’s what’s kept me neutral every single time. I go day-by-day and hopefully, today is the best day I have, and tomorrow we’ll see what happens.”

Nestor Cortes has three main pitches that he uses. He still has a sinker and a changeup in his arsenal, but he only uses them on less than 5% of his pitches now. Over the regular season, Cortes had a four-seam fastball most of the time followed by a cutter and then his slider. Most hitters on the ALDS roster of Cleveland can’t hit a fastball well. During the regular season, FanGraphs put them at -39.5 runs above average. The Tigers were the only team to do worse, with 96 losses. Cleveland was also below average when facing cutters and just 0.5 runs above average when facing sliders.

It looks strange for a team that plays in the ALDS. Usually, big-league batters have their best with fastballs. But the Guardians are the youngest team in the majors, and their young batters often have trouble when they see elite-breaking stuff for the first time. The old saying goes that “MLB batters could time up a bullet if it was over the plate,” but the Cleveland Guardians were far from it this season.

Nestor Cortes does not always throw very hard, and this is a saving grace for the Guardians. It is true that the Yankees’ breakout star only throws his fastball at an average of 91.8 miles per hour. The Guardians’ slugging percentage goes up to .409 when the fastball is less than 92 miles per hour, but that is still the lowest in the AL.

Nestor Cortes arrived from Cuba when he was just seven months old and went to become a “36th-round draft pick who isn’t six feet tall.” He was designated but continued pitching in the minors trying to return. After his 7.71 ERA in 2018, the Orioles discarded him. Cortes was upset because he felt like he had a black mark on his record. He was brought back to the Yankees as a long-relief player and a spot starter in 2019.

When the Mariners showed interest in a trade that winter, the Yankees moved quickly and sent Nestor Cortes to Seattle in exchange for cash. Before becoming a free agent, he only played five games for the Mariners and had a career ERA of 6.72.

Cortes has a Minor League contract with the Yankees. Sometimes he wondered if his dream of making it to the big leagues was over. But fate had something for him.

How Nestor Cortes decides to attack the Guardians will be very interesting, because this game is the most important one in the best-of-five series. Almost every coach in the playoffs will tell you that you shouldn’t change the things that got you here. Cortes’s best pitch all year has been the four-seam fastball, and when the Guardians hit a fastball, the bats almost looked like they were made of glass. That could make Cortes keep throwing that same pitch or make him throw more of his other pitches to throw off the Cleveland lineup. It doesn’t make sense to go with the second choice, but Cole did pretty well with it when he needed a swing-and-miss.

The last interesting thing is that none of the batters for Cleveland have seen Nestor Cortes that much. Only Myles Straw, Jose Ramirez, and Amed Rosario on Terry Francona’s team have played against him five or more times. Straw and Ramirez are 0 for 15 and have five strikeouts between them. Four of those strikeouts are because of Ramirez, who is the best in Cleveland. Rosario is the only Cleveland player to have done well against Cortes, going 2-for-3 with a home run and two walks.

Nestor Cortes should not attack the Guardians because he is much stronger than them. This makes the Guardians’ failure to steal Game 1 look even worse, as it seems likely that they will be down 0-2 heading back to Cleveland for Game 3.

Can Nestor Cortes shut down the Guardians?