Yankees’ pitching puzzle takes center stage ahead of ALDS

The New York Yankees' Gerrit Cole enters the Yankee Stadium for practice ahead of their playoff. Yankees Stadium, Oct. 1, 2024.
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The New York Yankees clinched their 21st AL East title with a decisive 10-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday. Their successful season continued a few days later when they secured the best record in the American League after the Cleveland Guardians dropped their series to the Houston Astros. This achievement grants the Yankees a first-round bye in the playoffs, setting them up to face the winner of the matchup between the fourth and fifth seeds, with Baltimore slated to meet the Kansas City Royals.

As the Yankees gear up for the division series beginning Saturday, concerns about their pitching staff loom due to recent injuries to key players, notably Nestor Cortes Jr. and Jake Cousins. Nevertheless, the team retains a strong group of pitchers who could potentially guide them deep into the postseason if they perform at their best.

Who will be on Yankees mound beyond Cole, Rodon

The starting pitchers for the first two games of the series have been confirmed. Gerrit Cole, who finished the regular season with an impressive 15 2/3 scoreless innings, is set to take the mound for Saturday’s opener. The Yankees’ ace experienced inconsistency during the season after an elbow injury sidelined him until June. However, his recent performances, including a complete-game shutout, indicate that the 34-year-old veteran has returned to top form.

For Game 2, manager Aaron Boone is expected to give the nod to Carlos Rodon. The left-hander has enjoyed a remarkable bounce-back season after a disappointing debut year with the Yankees in 2023, where he recorded a 6.85 ERA. This year, Rodon led the team in wins with a 16-9 record, achieving a 3.96 ERA and 195 strikeouts over 175 innings. His ability to stay healthy has been crucial, as evidenced by his 32 starts, a milestone he had reached only once before in his career.

The third starting spot remains uncertain. Nestor Cortes would have likely been the frontrunner for Game 3 if healthy, as the left-hander was hitting his stride after a rocky regular season. However, Boone indicated that the earliest Cortes could begin his elbow rehabilitation would be October 5, suggesting that, barring an unexpected recovery, he would only be available if the Yankees advance deep into the postseason.

With Cortes out, the options for the third starter narrow to Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil. The decision between these two pitchers will be critical as the Yankees finalized their rotation for the upcoming division series.

Experienced Schmidt or newbie Gil: Yankees unsure of options

As the Yankees evaluate their options for the third starter in the upcoming division series, they face a tough decision between rookie Luis Gil and veteran Clarke Schmidt.

Gil, a potential AL Rookie of the Year candidate, has exceeded expectations this season. Initially not slated to make the roster, the 25-year-old right-hander capitalized on an opportunity when Gerrit Cole was sidelined during Spring Training. Gil’s strong performance earned him a spot in the rotation, finishing the regular season with a 15-7 record, a 3.50 ERA, and 151 2/3 innings pitched. His ERA+ of 117 highlights his above-average effectiveness.

In contrast, Schmidt has shown remarkable consistency despite battling a back injury earlier in the season. The 28-year-old has started 16 games, posting an impressive 2.85 ERA over 85 1/3 innings. His reliability and experience could give him an advantage in the Yankees‘ decision-making process.

Both pitchers bring distinct strengths. While Gil has the potential for dominant outings on his best days, he has also displayed vulnerability in some games, making consistency a crucial factor in the high-pressure postseason environment, which may favor Schmidt.

Bullpen experience also plays a role in the discussion. Schmidt has a history of relief appearances, having pitched in 26 games out of the bullpen in 2022. Meanwhile, Gil’s Major League experience has been limited to starting roles. This versatility might influence the Yankees’ decision, particularly if they consider utilizing one of these pitchers in a relief capacity alongside Marcus Stroman.

The coaching staff must carefully weigh these factors. While Gil’s raw talent and potential for standout performances are appealing, Schmidt’s consistency and adaptability present a strong case. The ultimate decision will likely depend on the Yankees’ overall pitching strategy for the series and how each pitcher aligns with their potential opponents.

This situation underscores the Yankees’ pitching depth, offering them two solid options as they prepare to finalize their rotation for the upcoming postseason challenge.

Yankees bullpen awaits confirmation

Luke Weaver has emerged as a potential closer candidate with impressive performances in September, adding to the Yankees' bullpen options as the playoffs approach
Yankees

As the Yankees gear up for their postseason run, effective management of their bullpen remains a top priority. The closer role presents a significant challenge for the team. While Clay Holmes has amassed 30 saves, he has also tallied 13 blown saves—more than any other pitcher in Major League Baseball. This total far exceeds the next highest, Jalen Beeks of the Pirates, who has nine.

In recent weeks, Luke Weaver has successfully stepped in to handle save opportunities in place of Holmes. However, the Yankees currently lack a definitive closer, a situation that raises concerns as a reliable finisher is often crucial for success in the playoffs.

Despite these challenges, particularly with Jake Cousins sidelined, the Yankees’ bullpen has performed admirably overall. Their bullpen ERA ranks sixth in MLB this season, indicating that if they can establish a clear closer, their relief corps could become a formidable asset in the postseason.

On Sept 11, 2024, Clay Holmes blew his 12th save of the season during the Yankees' win over the Royals at Yankee Stadium
The Playoffs

Regarding the selection of a third starter for the upcoming ALDS, the choice remains uncertain. However, based on his overall performance during the season, Luis Gil appears to be a strong candidate for this role. While Gil carries a higher risk of an erratic start, he has shown the ability to pitch deep into games with dominating performances. His raw talent and potential brilliance make a compelling case for his inclusion in the playoff rotation.

Clarke Schmidt, though consistent and reliable, may not provide the same upside as Gil. Nevertheless, Schmidt’s impressive skills and solid performance throughout the season suggest he deserves a chance to start in the postseason. There is hope that manager Aaron Boone recognizes Gil’s potential impact as the Yankees aim to reach the World Series for the first time in 15 years.

Ultimately, decisions regarding bullpen management and the choice of the third starter will be critical to the Yankees’ pursuit of postseason success. The team’s ability to optimize its pitching staff could significantly influence their quest to end a lengthy World Series drought.

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